Concerns are growing about the impact on the global economy from Trump’s ever-expanding trade offensive, after new data showed China and Japan’s factories are still caught in a slump.

What a government shutdown could look like

But markets are bracing for a government shutdown after Trump and Republicans met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday but failed to strike a deal to avert a halt to funding. «I think we’re headed to a shutdown,» Vice President JD Vance said. In other economic data, an update on consumer confidence showed the Conference Board’s measure dropping to its lowest point since April, in the throes of Trump’s «Liberation Day» tariff salvos. Consumers expressed a dim outlook on the job market in particular, the report said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 82 points, or 0.2%, to mark a record closing high.

Crude Oil Slides on Shutdown Fears

The Federal Reserve also resumed cutting interest rates earlier this month, and traders see a 77.7% chance that rates will end the year another half-point lower, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Looking forward, Nike (NKE) is expected to report earnings after the bell. Meanwhile, Trump sent out a fresh flurry of tariffs on lumber, timber, and certain types of furniture late Monday, hot on the heels of a threat of levies on foreign-made movies and last week’s plan to put 100% duties on branded drugs.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Wrapping Up Best September in More Than a Decade

Though a midnight ET deadline to avert a government shutdown is expected by many on Wall Street to pass without an agreement, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.05% during previous government shutdowns, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index market wizards series has gained during the past five shutdowns. The average S&P 500 performance during shutdowns that lasted 15 days or longer was nearly 2.9%.

• Meanwhile, Trump sent out a fresh flurry of tariffs on lumber, timber, and certain types of furniture late Monday, hot on the heels of a threat of levies on foreign-made movies and last week’s plan to put 100% duties on branded drugs.
• For Wall Street, the concern is that the government’s economic data releases will halt during a stoppage.
• But markets are bracing for a government shutdown after Trump and Republicans met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday but failed to strike a deal to avert a halt to funding.
• A JOLTS update on September job openings released Tuesday could be the last labor market insight from the BLS for some time.
• Though a midnight ET deadline to avert a government shutdown is expected by many on Wall Street to pass without an agreement, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.05% during previous government shutdowns, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Pfizer, Drug Stocks Leading S&P 500 on Pricing Deal with White House

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 82 points, or 0.2%, to mark a record closing high.
• The Federal Reserve also resumed cutting interest rates earlier this month, and traders see a 77.7% chance that rates will end the year another half-point lower, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• The market bucked historical trends by rallying to fresh highs earlier in month, riding another wave of artificial intelligence exuberance.
• The report showed job openings rose more than expected.
• Consumers expressed a dim outlook on the job market in particular, the report said.

A JOLTS update on September job openings released Tuesday could be the last labor market insight from the BLS for some time. The report showed job openings rose more than expected. Hiring slowed and layoffs dropped, consistent with the «low-hire, low-fire» market that has taken shape in recent months.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq end best September since 2010.

The S&P and Nasdaq each had their best September performance since 2010. For Wall Street, the concern is that the government’s economic data releases will halt during a stoppage. US stocks edged up on Tuesday as investors weighed the likely fallout of President Trump’s latest tariff blitz and the US government careened toward its first shutdown in seven years. The market bucked historical trends by rallying to fresh highs earlier in month, riding another wave of artificial intelligence exuberance.